Waiting for Equities to Pop

The long road back to profitability…

Tuesday, September 13th, was one of the worst days in history in the stock market. The DOW dropped by more than 1300 points, following about eight straight days of gains, which made it appear that we were beginning the long road back to profitability. But everything was erased on that day, and it really hasn’t improved. 

Here are some ugly statistics as of Friday, September 18th:

So, what happened last week?

There was an intersection of four perceived negative events.

1. The inflation rate hit 8.3%, a 40-year high.

2. There was a party at the White House celebrating the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided awful optics.

3. The unemployment rate ticked up for the first time since we can remember.

4. Mortgage rates for a 30-year mortgage hit 6.28%.

So, now what? 

Here are the two paths in front of us, both spelling out buying opportunities for the long-term investor.

1. We touch, or come close to touching, the bottom of the stock markets from earlier this year and then begin our ascent.

2. We enter a recession, a housing stoppage, and we all freeze for a year or so, making 2022 a year for investors similar to 2008-2009 and 2001-2002, two formerly painful periods. 

 

I continue to remain very cautiously bullish and optimistic, especially with elections coming in the next few weeks, and ever hopeful for policy changes that will improve the economy.

We will see.