Waiting for Equities to Pop

Sep 21, 2022

The long road back to profitability…

Tuesday, September 13th, was one of the worst days in history in the stock market. The DOW dropped by more than 1300 points, following about eight straight days of gains, which made it appear that we were beginning the long road back to profitability. But everything was erased on that day, and it really hasn’t improved. 

Here are some ugly statistics as of Friday, September 18th:

The S & P Index is down 18.75% this year

The DOW Index is down 18% this year

The NASDAQ is down 27% this year

The Russell 2000 (smaller companies) is down 21% this year

The Vanguard Technology Index is down by 28% this year

So, what happened last week?

There was an intersection of four perceived negative events.

1. The inflation rate hit 8.3%, a 40-year high.

2. There was a party at the White House celebrating the Inflation Reduction Act, which provided awful optics.

3. The unemployment rate ticked up for the first time since we can remember.

4. Mortgage rates for a 30-year mortgage hit 6.28%.

So, now what? 

Here are the two paths in front of us, both spelling out buying opportunities for the long-term investor.

1. We touch, or come close to touching, the bottom of the stock markets from earlier this year and then begin our ascent.

2. We enter a recession, a housing stoppage, and we all freeze for a year or so, making 2022 a year for investors similar to 2008-2009 and 2001-2002, two formerly painful periods. 

 

I continue to remain very cautiously bullish and optimistic, especially with elections coming in the next few weeks, and ever hopeful for policy changes that will improve the economy.

We will see. 

We look forward to hearing from you.

I’m here to answer any questions or concerns you may have. Please feel free to reach out to me to meet in person or Zoom at your convenience. 

 

All my best,

Elliot Kallen

925-314-8503

Elliot@ProsperityFinancialGroup.com

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